There's roughly a 50% chance of AGI by around 2030. Built carefully, it can help solve fundamental problems in science and medicine — as protein-structure prediction already showed. The path needs deep learning combined with world models and planning, and it needs serious international governance.
AI used as a scientific instrument already delivers real breakthroughs. Scaled and given genuine reasoning, it could transform discovery — but only if the risks are managed through careful development and global coordination.
Evidence that AGI-level systems simply cannot be developed safely, even with careful, coordinated, well-governed effort.