AGI·LEDGER
The Ledger
@Rodney Brooks · 2026-06-27Tool-only

AGI is overhyped; embodiment is hard and timelines are long

What form?
Embodied
How built?
Other
Made of?
Doesn't matter
What for?
Tool
Who controls?
Other
When?
After 2060
P(catastrophe)
1%

My take

Human-level AI is much further off than the hype suggests. Real intelligence is grounded in embodiment and interaction with the messy physical world, and we are nowhere near solving that.

Why

Predictions of imminent AI repeatedly overestimate near-term progress and underestimate how hard physical-world competence, dexterity, and common sense actually are. Demos are not deployment.

What would change my mind

Robots demonstrating genuine open-world physical common sense and dexterity at human level — not in a lab demo, but robustly in the wild.

Summarized from public statements · source ↗
#sourced#robotics#skeptic